Wahrscheinlichkeit        [ zurück ]      [ Index ]      [ Literatur-Index ]      [ Die Hyper-Bibliothek ]

Als Wahrscheinlichkeit .... Beobachter.

Exemplarisches:
Wie gross ist die Chance, das zwei Personen am gleichen Tag Geburtstag haben, wenn 90 Personen in einem Raum sind?


Man kann rechnen (wenn man kann) oder raten. Raten geht oft ziemlich daneben: man könnte meinen 90/365 = ca. 025, oder man könnte intuitiv sagen, dass die Chache viel gösser oder viel kleiner ist. (Lösung, das Beispiel stammt aus Beer, und wird dort in einer ziemlich wilden Argumetation gegen mechanistisches Denken angeführt)
The Media is all over the supposed cosmic rarity of a total lunar eclipse happening on the date of the winter solstice. Total lunar eclipses do not fall on the winter solstice very often. The last time it happened was several centuries ago. The next time, most of us will be long dead. But why is that so? What does it mean that this is so rare? They don't fall on the summer solstice very often either. Or on my birthday. Or on yours. A random populated point on earth experiences a total lunar eclipse about once every 2 years. On any particular date, it will therefore experience a total lunar eclipse about once every 700 years. This is hardly news. One thing is remarkable about watching the lunar eclipse at the winter solstice: in the North, you are unlikely to be able to see it out your window. It's almost straight up in the sky. (But the media seem to have missed that. :) Q1: What is the law of Averages? A: There is no such law. It exists only in the minds of stupid people. Q2: Why is it impossible to prove a negative? A: It is not impossible to "prove a negative". That is a saying that stupid people keep repeating. Q3: What is the probability that out of 100 coin tosses there are 50 heads? A: 8% Q4: In a random collection of 36 people, what is the probability that 2 have the same birthday? A: 83% Q5: One of my two children is a boy named Sue. What are the chances that the other child is also a boy? A: 33% Q6: One of my two children is a boy born on a Tuesday. What are the chances that I have two boys? A: 48% Behind one of three doors is a valuable prize. Behind the other two doors is something worth much less like. After the contestant chooses one of the three doors Monty Hall (who knows which door has the prize behind it) always reveals a door (other than the one chosen) that has a worthless item behind it. He now poses the question to the contestant: "Do you want to switch doors or stick to your orginal choice?" Q7: Its it better to switch or stick? A: Switch.