Today, Denmark lifted *all* restrictions, while cases are soaring.

The international reaction: Disbelief.

I am leading the largest Danish project on pandemic behavior & I am advising the gov.

Here is why Danes are still supportive. And what may be learned from this.

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7:01 vorm. · 1. Feb. 2022·chirr.app
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Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Antwort an 
@M_B_Petersen
The graph is from here: https://ft.com/content/037a3ac9-830b-4592-9ff3-feed2008bdb7. It shows the complexity of the epidemic situation. Cases are extremely high, hospitalizations are rising and deaths are rising slowly too. But people in ICUs are dropping. (2/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Despite this, a clear majority of the public supports removing all restrictions (https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2022-01-31-ikke-alle-er-trygge-ved-genaabningen-det-er-lidt-af-et-eksperiment-mener). A minority (28 %) is concerned. (3/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Also, in our 
@hopeproject_dk
 we have - every day - tracked feelings of societal threat (https://hope-project.dk/#/reports/Danskernes_Smitteforebyggende_Adfaerd_Og_Opfattelser). They have been dropping sharply the last month and are at the lowest point we have measured. (4/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Throughout the pandemic, our data shows that the key worry of Danes is not their health but overwhelmed hospitals. In fact, in Jan '22 the average Dane was more worried about lockdowns than their own health. (5/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Why this lack of worry? Because Danes are highly vaccinated - and our data shows that their trust in the vaccines are high. 81 % of the entire population are vaccinated and 61 % of the population have received a booster vaccine. Vaccines are available from 5 years & up. (6/19)

Furthermore, virtually all infections in Denmark are now omicron. The combination of omicron and high booster coverage decouples infection and severity (https://ft.com/content/03aa46e2-ac3a-4c16-82be-431ea4c43e58). While there are high case counts, the pressure on hospitals is lower than in previous waves. (7/19)
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Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Antwort an 
@M_B_Petersen
The clearest example of this is the drop in ICU (graph by @
@mikaelmilhoj
). According to 
@SSI_dk
 the drop is caused by the shift from delta to omicron infections (https://covid19.ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/subsites/covid19/risikovurderinger/2022/risikovurdering-for-udviklingen-i-epidemien-med-covid19-22012022.pdf?la=da). Current excess death is still driven by the delta wave that was crush by omicron. (8/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Even if many hospitalizations are short and incidental, a cause of concern is that omicron infections haven't topped. Yet, as seen from this graph (by 
@me_macro
) , cases have followed the predicted trajectory and are expected to soon fall, if it is not already happening. (9/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Another concern is long covid. Our data shows that ~50 % of Danes have such concerns. But vaccines decrease long covid too (https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.05.22268800v2). And Danish data suggest that long covid in kids is "rare & mainly of short duration" (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00431-021-04345-z). (10/19)
link.springer.com
Long COVID symptoms and duration in SARS-CoV-2 positive children — a nationwide cohort study
European Journal of Pediatrics - Most children have a mild course of acute COVID-19. Only few mainly non-controlled studies with small sample size have evaluated long-term recovery from SARS-CoV-2...
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Should Denmark wait until all concerns have been settled? Maybe. But waiting is not free. It has costs in terms of the economy, well-being and democratic rights. Balancing these is an explicit part of the Danish strategy: https://fm.dk/nyheder/nyhedsarkiv/2021/september/ekspertgruppen-om-en-langsigtet-strategi-for-et-genaabnet-danmark-offentliggoer-sin-rapport/. (11/19)
fm.dk
Ekspertgruppen om en langsigtet strategi for et genåbnet Danmark offentliggør sin rapport
Aftalepartierne bag Rammeaftalen om plan for genåbning af Danmark blev i foråret 2021 enige om at nedsætte en ekspertgruppe, der fik til opgave at komme med input til den langsigtede strategi for...
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Our research shows that these costs generate pandemic fatigue, which fuels distrust (https://psyarxiv.com/qjmct/). When well-being has been relatively high in Denmark it is, in part, because measures have been somewhat mild & because they have been relaxed when possible. (12/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Pandemic management involves trade-offs and there is not one single legitimate strategy. Within the set of legitimate strategies, democratic agreement matters more than the exact nature of the trade-offs. (13/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
There is indeed broad agreement. Even a majority of the elderly feels safe lifting restrictions (https://politiken.dk/indland/art8593507/%C2%BBBekymringen-har-n%C3%A5et-det-laveste-punkt-vi-har-m%C3%A5lt%C2%AB). Our research shows they feel competent in avoiding infections (https://bit.ly/3gdbgGS). They have isolated over winter & will likely still do so. (14/19)

Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
So, opening up imposes costs on some. Why do they accept it? My guess is: For the same reason that most young Danes have complied meticulously with restrictions: Trust in authorities and solidarity with society. These have been internationally high in Denmark. (16/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
In return, there is a high motivation to help those at risk, despite that most do not feel that this is a threat to themselves. We see no drop in Danes' motivation to keep distance to the elderly and those at risk. People care and will continue to take precautions. (17/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Should your country also turn the responsibility to people themselves? It depends on the epidemic & public preferences. But this shows how trust & solidarity entails an acceptance of costs, allowing society to act in agreement. Both when closing down & when opening up. (18/19)
Michael Bang Petersen
@M_B_Petersen
·
6 Std.
Does this mean it is over? No, we have declassified corona before. But as lockdowns breed mistrust, it is prudent to relax measures when possible. If it is not over--if lockdowns are to be imposed again--societies will need as much trust & solidarity as they can muster. (19/19)
KooZooK.com
@koozookit

=====================
·
4 Std.
Antwort an 
@M_B_Petersen
I think there are 2 main reasons to be cautious with delta vs omicron unvaccinated omi-lite hypothesis.

1. There may be network effects that are stronger with age distribution  omicron +2

https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1486050584985686022?t=V_6Obr_WO3b6pVSAhTaZMg&s=19

2. With D3 infection >> in younger, very sensitive wrt severity.
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Dvir Aran
@dvir_a
 · 25. Jan.
FeuerFeuer Excited to share our new pre-print by @HillaLeon: “Over- and under-estimation of vaccine effectiveness”. 
Can different dynamics between vaccinated and unvaccinated people affect vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimations? 
https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.24.22269737v1
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KooZooK.com
@koozookit
·
4 Std.
Sorry, forgot to add image of case breakdown in London, 60+ versus the rest.

You can see how case age distribution has changed so much since vaccinations, if you check the ratios.

Seems to have accelerated with omicron as most protection vs infection due to D3 (mostly oldest).
ADutchPatriot - Handys verboten QR Weigeraar
@ADutchPatriot
·
4 Std.
Antwort an 
@M_B_Petersen
"The combination of omicron and high booster coverage decouples infection and severity"

This is not correct: omicron itself causes hardly any severity. The boosters do nothing. Ask South Africa with a ~35% vaccination rate and same graphs as Denmark.